Over 9% of Global Land at High Risk of Zoonotic Outbreaks, Study Finds

A new international study has found that more than 9% of the world’s land area is at high or very high risk of zoonotic disease outbreaks — infections that can spread between animals and humans, such as COVID-19. The research underscores the urgent need for global surveillance and prevention strategies to curb potential future pandemics.

Published in the journal Science Advances, the study estimates that around 3% of the global population lives in areas of extreme risk, while nearly 20% reside in regions classified as medium risk. The findings highlight significant vulnerabilities, especially in regions where human-animal interactions are frequent and healthcare infrastructure is underdeveloped.

Researchers from the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre (JRC) Scientific Development Programmes Unit in Italy led the study. They analysed vast datasets from the Global Infectious Diseases and Epidemiology Network (GIDEON) and the World Health Organization’s (WHO) list of high-priority diseases with epidemic or pandemic potential.

The risk zones were identified based on factors such as population density, land-use changes, livestock and wildlife density, human encroachment into forested areas, and historical records of disease outbreaks.

According to the authors, better land-use planning, improved public health systems, and global cooperation on early warning systems are essential to reduce the risk of zoonotic spillovers.

“The COVID-19 pandemic was a wake-up call. This study provides the global community with a map of where the next pandemic could potentially emerge,” the researchers said in a joint statement.

Experts suggest that policies prioritizing One Health — a collaborative approach that connects human, animal, and environmental health — will be crucial in addressing these emerging threats.